Four of the top 25 AP poll teams in the fifth week of college football have something to prove to justify their national ranking. Missouri ranks fourth in the current AP Top 25 poll, Texas Tech seventh, South Florida 10th and Kansas 16th. These four ranked teams need to play better competition and win. That includes South Florida’s narrow win at home over Kansas, 37-34.
Let’s start with South Florida, which Sagarin ranked 119th in hardest hours among the 119 schools in Division 1-A or, as the NCAA top brass like to say, the Football Bowl Subdivision.
The average schedule toughness of the five South Florida opponents who have already played is equal to the worst Division 1-A school in college football. The Bulls have beaten 1-AA Tennessee Martin 56-7 (ranked 170 by Sagarin in quality among 242 Division 1-A and 1-AA schools with football programs), Central Florida 31-24 in overtime (ranked 124 in quality), Kansas 37-34 (rank 42), Florida International 17-9 (rank 108) and North Carolina State 41-10 (rank 100).
Don’t confuse Sagarin’s rating for schedule toughness with his rating for quality team performance. Put another way, Kansas is the 42nd best team in the country right now, North Carolina State is 100th best, Florida International is 108th, Central Florida is 124th and Tennessee Martin is 170th.
Four of the 5 teams South Florida has beaten are ranked 100th or worse according to Sagarin. The facts are not exaggerated, and Sagarin’s ratings, unlike the AP Top 25 poll, are based on actual results from games played against each other. The Bulls are unbeaten 5-0 but host Pittsburgh this Saturday. Let’s see if Dave Wannstedt can get his Pitt Panthers out of the rut and beat South Florida.
Missouri is actually in left field hanging from a tree branch. The Tigers rank 142nd in schedule toughness, the worst of these four teams that could be overrated and headed for a nosedive in the AP Poll.
Missouri’s heady 4-0 record came at the expense of Illinois 52-42 (ranked 61 in quality by Sagarin), 1-AA Southeastern Missouri 52-3 (ranked 211), Nevada 69-17 (ranked 67 ) and Buffalo 42-21 (93rd place). The fact that the Tigers have outscored their opponents 215-83 still doesn’t impress. They gave up 42 points to Illinois, their best opponent so far.
Illinois was in the AP Top 25 the first four weeks of the season, moving up to No. 22. Two weeks ago I was all over the Fighting Illini case, saying they shouldn’t even be in the Top 25. Last week they visited Penn Been in Happy Valley and found out how good they are not.
Illinois was pushed out of the Top 25 this week, and Missouri may have a free fall into the Top 25 as play will stop with the Tigers’ next four opponents: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas and Colorado.
Texas Tech is undefeated at 4-0, but Sagarin ranked it 129th in schedule toughness. The Red Raiders are hanging with Missouri on the other branch of the same tree. Texas Tech has beaten 1-AA Eastern Washington 49-24 (rank 98 by Sagarin), Nevada 35-19 (rank 67), Southern Methodist 43-7 (rank 148) and 1-AA Massachusetts 56-14 (rank 113). .
Here’s the Red Raiders wake-up call for the next 7 weeks: Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Let’s see if Texas Tech eliminates these 7 opponents and goes 11-0 on the season with Baylor as its last opponent. If you think Texas Tech is about to drop out of the AP Top 25, you’re right.
Kansas is the last of the four highest-ranked teams with some serious tests to do. The Jayhawks are ranked 101st in schedule toughness. Kansas, as you may recall, lost to South Florida 37-34 in a road game. The Jayhawks’ victories have come against Florida International 40-10 (108th place by Sagarin), Louisiana Tech 29-0 (107th place) and 1-AA Sam Houston State 38-14 (127th place).
After next week, Kansas will look to Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas and Missouri. It’s really doubtful that Kansas will finish its regular season with an 11-1 record.
Kansas isn’t likely to go 11-1 as the Big 12 teams will be playing each other very soon. Five Big 12 teams are ranked in the AP Top 25 with 4-0 records: Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. They better enjoy their unbeaten records while they can.
While it may not seem like it, Missouri and Texas Tech may be the weakest of the five unbeaten teams. Time will tell, and Sargarin will record the results for all to see.
Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley